Wisdom says it, that “it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. ”
All indications are that Iran has either reached or is within a hand's breadth of a nuclear weapon capability. Sunday, Nov. 6, Iran was reported to have carried out implosion experiments in a large steel container built as a testing capsule for this purpose at Parchin.
Such experiments would be hard to explain away for any purpose other than the development of nuclear arms.
Today, a Russian nuclear expert Vyacheslav Danilenko was named as having taught the Iranians how to build the R265 steel generator used for the implosion in the Parchin experiment.
Since Danilenko has been long back home in Russia by 2005, logically, Iran is considered to have mastered the critical nuclear detonation technology at least six years ago or even earlier.
The latest information that surfaced in media reports about the R265 is pivotal as a nuclear weapon can only be detonated, if a sphere of conventional explosives is detonated first to create a blast wave that compresses a central ball of nuclear fuel into an incredibly dense mass, triggering a nuclear chain reaction and explosion.
I am no nuclear expert, but I did maintain a long friendship with the late Professor Edward Teller the Hungarian-American theoretical physicist, known colloquially as "the father of the hydrogen bomb”. I remember how in his heavily accented English Dr. Teller once sketched the process on a napkin, so that even I could understand the process in layman’s terms.
So if my calculations are accurate, for at least six years the US and Israeli governments have kept their own populations and the world in general in the dark about true status of Iran's nuclear program.
I recall reading media reports back in 2007 that under the administration of President George W. Bush, the US government, military and intelligence agencies published a completely false and misleading National Intelligence Estimate which declared with the echoes of Neville Chamberlain’s “Peace in our time” certainty that in 2003, Tehran had suspended intense work on the design and production of a nuclear weapon.
When the Israeli intelligence experts pointed out the completely inaccuracy of the NIE, they were unceremoniously told to back off and mind their own business.
But since the Israelis are pretty good on issues like these- especially when the potential threat is an existential one- they did not accept at face value the team of Central Intelligence Agency Director Gen. Michael V. Hayden’s assertions, they preferred to rely on their own intelligence services.
Of course, both the US and Israeli knew the truth – that Iran was getting dangerously close to a nuclear capacity, had already obtained nuclear explosives, detonators and the technology for triggering them, as well as all critical components building ICBMs.
So the Israelis were not sitting on their laurels, but were exploring the realm of the near impossible: to permanently damage Iran’s nuclear process by sheer imagination. This is how the Stuxnet malworm made its first appearance in June 2010.
The cleverly created virus embarked on stealthy infections of the uranium enrichment plant’s control system in Natanz, in order to at least slow down Iran's stockpiling of large quantities of weapons-grade fuel.
But at the end of the day Iran has since still managed to scrape together enough enriched uranium for at least four nuclear explosive devices anyway.
While the cleverly planned cyber warfare briefly slowed Iran's steady progress toward a nuclear bomb but never derailed it.
The Mossad’s ‘wet affairs” department also manage to get rid of some Iranian nuclear scientists, but at the end of the day, that too proved to be having only marginal setbacks for Ahmadenijad’s nuke program.
The pending (IAEA) report will show in black and white that ineffective international sanctions, the assassinations of key scientists, the Stuxnet virus and similar covert operations to damage the equipment on its way to Iran, never diverted the Ayatollahs long from their relentless pursuit of atomic weapons.
I recall reading in the press that two leaders, Obama and Netanyahu, both promised when they were elected never to let Iran achieve a nuclear arms capability.
As soon as both settled into their chairs, Iran was allowed to reach precisely such capability.
As things stand today, all components of four or more bombs are ready to be assembled by the Iranians, with their newly tested Shahab missiles and even their crude submarines to deliver them, should Ahmadinejad give the order.
All the while the public rhetoric continues, producing various estimates as to just how far away from Iran –triggered doomsday we may be.
Obama knows that due to inaction that borders on paralysis, in practical terms time pretty much ran out, but he is so focused on getting re-elected for another four year term is that the only thing he would do, is send Leon Panetta to tell the Israelis to back off and not even think of going after the Iranian nukes.
I suspect, the Administration in Washington is not very much looking forward to the IAEA report, as it will simply pull away the veil of guessing and expose the ugly truth.
Once the facts are laid out on the table for all to see, it will be that much harder for anyone to continue to spin the ugly facts for short-term convenient political gains.
The thing that upsets me more than anything is the ugly role that the Russians are playing in this emerging drama.
It is becoming evident, that one or more Russian nuclear physicists could have played a pivotal role in helping Iran to come so perilously close to developing nuclear weapons.
According to recent press reports, a former Soviet nuclear expert Vyacheslav Danilenko “allegedly tutored Iranians over several years on building high-precision detonators of the kind used to trigger a nuclear chain reaction.”
Documents and other records provide new details on the role played by this prominent former Soviet weapons scientist who allegedly tutored Iranians over several years on building high-precision detonators of the kind used to trigger a nuclear chain reaction, the officials and experts said.
According to the proof provided to the IAEA, key assistance in both areas was provided by Vyacheslav Danilenko, a former Soviet nuclear scientist who was contracted in the mid-1990s by Iran’s Physics Research Center, a facility linked to the country’s nuclear program.
Documents provided to the U.N. officials showed that Danilenko offered assistance to the Iranians over at least five years, giving lectures and sharing research papers on developing and testing an explosives package that the Iranians promptly incorporated into their warhead design, according to two separate officials with access to the IAEA’s confidential files.
The key breakthrough in Iran's quest for nuclear weapons was its success in obtaining design information for a device known as R265 generator.
The device is a hemispherical aluminum shell that is lined with pellets of high explosives and wired electrically so that detonations occur in split-second precision, the report said. The explosions compress a small sphere of enriched uranium or plutonium to trigger a nuclear chain reaction.
Danilenko was contracted in the mid-1990s by Iran's Physics Research Centre and knowing how things work in that part of the world- it had to be with the full knowledge of the Russian government.
Danilenko provided invaluable assistance to the Iranians over at least five years, giving lectures and sharing research papers on developing and testing an explosive package that the Iranians apparently incorporated into their warhead design.
While the theory is manageable, in actual practical terms building such a device is a formidable technical challenge and Iran needed outside assistance in designing the generator and testing its performance.
Danilenko's role was judged to be so critical that IAEA investigators devoted great and sustained efforts to obtaining his cooperation, the two officials said.
The scientist acknowledged his role, but said he was under belief that his work was limited to assisting harmless civilian engineering projects.
While the world was considering boycotts and other measures, Iran continued field tests and computer simulations aimed at developing nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles after 2003 despite previous naïve US assumptions that Tehran had completely stopped its nuclear weapons research at that time.
Latest assessment of Iran’s nuclear weapons research shows that Tehran has not yet actually completed assembling a nuclear weapon but has all the necessary technical information and components to create one in a very short time- should its political masters decide so.
Pakistani and North Korean scientists also actively helped Iranian experts in theoretical design work while consistently lying about it to the West.
Started by an over-zealous Israeli reporter, Nahum Barnea, media speculations of an impending Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities flooded the information highway in recent days. There was considerable public guessing of the U.S. and British military contingency planning in the aftermath of this potential strike.
Israel’s military planners and political policy makers also went into action. On Wednesday, Nov. 2, shortly after announcing the successful test launch from the Palmachim IAF base of a new, intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, Israel disclosed in unusual detail a joint Israeli-Italian air exercise ending last Friday, Nov. 29, at Sardinia.
Foreign sources identified the ICBM as an upgraded Jericho 3 said able to deliver a 750-kilo nuclear warhead to a distance of 7,000 kilometers - further, if fitted with a smaller warhead.
Western intelligence experts estimate that 42 such missiles with conventional warheads are enough to seriously disable Iran's main nuclear facilities in Natanz, Isfahan and Arak.
As for Iran's newest underground Fordo facility near Qom, the US very publicly supplied Israel with GBU-28 bunker busters as far back as the third week of September.
Six Israel Air Force squadrons took part in the joint one-week exercise with Italy consisting of fourteen F-16 F-16 single and twin-seaters taking off from the Ramat David air base, joined by Israeli-modified Boeing craft for in-flight refueling of war planes, the Gulfstream-built highly capable Eitam Air Control early warning aircraft and specially equipped Hercules transports taking off from the Nevatim IAF base in the Negev.
As part of the joint exercise, on Silvio Berlusconi’s direct orders, the Italian air force flew the advanced Eurofighter Typhoon, AMX, Panavia Tornado and F-16s.
Last Wednesday a large-scale exercise had begun to prepare central Israel for missile attack.
While all this activity was going on, Israeli leaders are in mid-debate over whether or not to launch a pre-emptive attack on Iran's nuclear sites.
Everyone wants his and her say on the matter, including ex generals and a long retired Mossad chief with a spotty service record behind him.
All the while, in reality, it appears that Netanyahu's inner circle of eight is in fact is trying to determine the usefulness of abandoning its longstanding policy of nuclear ambiguity at this time.
From all indications, a pending attack is not on Bibi’s current agenda.
November promises to be an especially critical month.
The public exposure of the scale of this program and Iran's pending indictment by the nuclear watchdog is intended to shock world opinion, thereby helping US President Barack Obama to go all the way with non-military steps: really biting sanctions, such as effective worldwide boycotts of Iranian fuel and even the Iranian state bank.
Tehran has warned that these sanctions would be deemed an act of war. The mouse is roaring.
Many believe that the Iranian leadership will not be content with statements ridiculing the IAEA report but will look for a more active response.
As the Persians are pretty good chess players, there is a fair chance that the Ayatollahs may lift her Hijab over a certain portion of its nuclear achievements, as though to say: to hell with this of this nuclear hide-and-seek game; we are about to be a nuclear power like just like Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea. So there you have it.
If that scenario plays our, Ahmadinejad may even conduct a complete or partial nuclear test, or else publicly display a new ballistic multi-stage missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead.
These calculated steps might be designed to give President Obama pause.
Because Tehran will likely gamble that if it has already publicly crossed the nuclear threshold, what would be the point of tough sanctions?
At the same time, Tehran has made the necessary preparations for lessening the impact of drastic penalties with the help of their ever present co-conspirators, Russia, China and perhaps even India.
Nearly all current Iranian oil deals are now funneled through a Russian-Iranian sales mechanism operating in the safety of Moscow and safely out of American and Western reach.
Under the watchful eye of Putin’s Kremlin, Russian banks are happily handling most of Iran's international financial transactions in currencies other than the US dollar – mostly the Russian ruble and Chinese yuan.
While all this is happening on the Iran side, a highly unstable Syria is another complicating factor and poses hard dilemma: Assad for his own political ends, might encourage Tehran into radical action in the wake of their nuclear controversy.
Predictable counter-responses by the West and Israel could light the fuse of a regional war- potentially taking the focus off Assad’s internal troubles.
All in all a damaging IAEA report on Iran would do more than expose its nuclear misconduct; it could bring the entire region dangerously close to a violent conflict.
The Israeli media's current highly irresponsible leaks of the debate within the government in Jerusalem aim to influence the judgment of both Netanyahu and Barak.
The media hysteria in Israel is also seriously detrimental to that country’s security.
The more publicity given this non-existent debate, the edgier Damascus and Tehran will become and the closer to warlike steps.
It may also have an undesirable effect on Iran's nuclear decision-making and increase pressures in the region and also the severity of Assad's brutal campaign of suppression.
Military action against Iran, alone or with US support, should not be on Israel's current agenda, while it should be reserved as a possible future option.
The ultimate question facing Israel’s decision makers is what to do if the IAEA revelations demonstrate that Tehran's pursuit of a nuclear weapon is too far advanced to stop and a nuclear-armed Iran is therefore close to reality.
The cabinet is consequently trying to decide whether the time has come for Israel to bring up their presumed bomb from the basement, or stay silent and support Obama on the imposition of sanctions, fully knowing that their deterrent value is completely non existent.
An answer of some sort to this question was provided last Wednesday by the test launch of the Jericho 3 ballistic missile.
Israel's military censors uncharacteristically allowed their media to quote "from foreign sources" that the newly launched missile is indeed nuclear-capable, indicating that the Netanyahu government may well be approaching a crucial decision to bring the nukes up from the basement.
And that would be a pivotal game changer.
All indications are that Iran has either reached or is within a hand's breadth of a nuclear weapon capability. Sunday, Nov. 6, Iran was reported to have carried out implosion experiments in a large steel container built as a testing capsule for this purpose at Parchin.
Such experiments would be hard to explain away for any purpose other than the development of nuclear arms.
Today, a Russian nuclear expert Vyacheslav Danilenko was named as having taught the Iranians how to build the R265 steel generator used for the implosion in the Parchin experiment.
Since Danilenko has been long back home in Russia by 2005, logically, Iran is considered to have mastered the critical nuclear detonation technology at least six years ago or even earlier.
The latest information that surfaced in media reports about the R265 is pivotal as a nuclear weapon can only be detonated, if a sphere of conventional explosives is detonated first to create a blast wave that compresses a central ball of nuclear fuel into an incredibly dense mass, triggering a nuclear chain reaction and explosion.
I am no nuclear expert, but I did maintain a long friendship with the late Professor Edward Teller the Hungarian-American theoretical physicist, known colloquially as "the father of the hydrogen bomb”. I remember how in his heavily accented English Dr. Teller once sketched the process on a napkin, so that even I could understand the process in layman’s terms.
So if my calculations are accurate, for at least six years the US and Israeli governments have kept their own populations and the world in general in the dark about true status of Iran's nuclear program.
I recall reading media reports back in 2007 that under the administration of President George W. Bush, the US government, military and intelligence agencies published a completely false and misleading National Intelligence Estimate which declared with the echoes of Neville Chamberlain’s “Peace in our time” certainty that in 2003, Tehran had suspended intense work on the design and production of a nuclear weapon.
When the Israeli intelligence experts pointed out the completely inaccuracy of the NIE, they were unceremoniously told to back off and mind their own business.
But since the Israelis are pretty good on issues like these- especially when the potential threat is an existential one- they did not accept at face value the team of Central Intelligence Agency Director Gen. Michael V. Hayden’s assertions, they preferred to rely on their own intelligence services.
Of course, both the US and Israeli knew the truth – that Iran was getting dangerously close to a nuclear capacity, had already obtained nuclear explosives, detonators and the technology for triggering them, as well as all critical components building ICBMs.
So the Israelis were not sitting on their laurels, but were exploring the realm of the near impossible: to permanently damage Iran’s nuclear process by sheer imagination. This is how the Stuxnet malworm made its first appearance in June 2010.
The cleverly created virus embarked on stealthy infections of the uranium enrichment plant’s control system in Natanz, in order to at least slow down Iran's stockpiling of large quantities of weapons-grade fuel.
But at the end of the day Iran has since still managed to scrape together enough enriched uranium for at least four nuclear explosive devices anyway.
While the cleverly planned cyber warfare briefly slowed Iran's steady progress toward a nuclear bomb but never derailed it.
The Mossad’s ‘wet affairs” department also manage to get rid of some Iranian nuclear scientists, but at the end of the day, that too proved to be having only marginal setbacks for Ahmadenijad’s nuke program.
The pending (IAEA) report will show in black and white that ineffective international sanctions, the assassinations of key scientists, the Stuxnet virus and similar covert operations to damage the equipment on its way to Iran, never diverted the Ayatollahs long from their relentless pursuit of atomic weapons.
I recall reading in the press that two leaders, Obama and Netanyahu, both promised when they were elected never to let Iran achieve a nuclear arms capability.
As soon as both settled into their chairs, Iran was allowed to reach precisely such capability.
As things stand today, all components of four or more bombs are ready to be assembled by the Iranians, with their newly tested Shahab missiles and even their crude submarines to deliver them, should Ahmadinejad give the order.
All the while the public rhetoric continues, producing various estimates as to just how far away from Iran –triggered doomsday we may be.
Obama knows that due to inaction that borders on paralysis, in practical terms time pretty much ran out, but he is so focused on getting re-elected for another four year term is that the only thing he would do, is send Leon Panetta to tell the Israelis to back off and not even think of going after the Iranian nukes.
I suspect, the Administration in Washington is not very much looking forward to the IAEA report, as it will simply pull away the veil of guessing and expose the ugly truth.
Once the facts are laid out on the table for all to see, it will be that much harder for anyone to continue to spin the ugly facts for short-term convenient political gains.
The thing that upsets me more than anything is the ugly role that the Russians are playing in this emerging drama.
It is becoming evident, that one or more Russian nuclear physicists could have played a pivotal role in helping Iran to come so perilously close to developing nuclear weapons.
According to recent press reports, a former Soviet nuclear expert Vyacheslav Danilenko “allegedly tutored Iranians over several years on building high-precision detonators of the kind used to trigger a nuclear chain reaction.”
Documents and other records provide new details on the role played by this prominent former Soviet weapons scientist who allegedly tutored Iranians over several years on building high-precision detonators of the kind used to trigger a nuclear chain reaction, the officials and experts said.
According to the proof provided to the IAEA, key assistance in both areas was provided by Vyacheslav Danilenko, a former Soviet nuclear scientist who was contracted in the mid-1990s by Iran’s Physics Research Center, a facility linked to the country’s nuclear program.
Documents provided to the U.N. officials showed that Danilenko offered assistance to the Iranians over at least five years, giving lectures and sharing research papers on developing and testing an explosives package that the Iranians promptly incorporated into their warhead design, according to two separate officials with access to the IAEA’s confidential files.
The key breakthrough in Iran's quest for nuclear weapons was its success in obtaining design information for a device known as R265 generator.
The device is a hemispherical aluminum shell that is lined with pellets of high explosives and wired electrically so that detonations occur in split-second precision, the report said. The explosions compress a small sphere of enriched uranium or plutonium to trigger a nuclear chain reaction.
Danilenko was contracted in the mid-1990s by Iran's Physics Research Centre and knowing how things work in that part of the world- it had to be with the full knowledge of the Russian government.
Danilenko provided invaluable assistance to the Iranians over at least five years, giving lectures and sharing research papers on developing and testing an explosive package that the Iranians apparently incorporated into their warhead design.
While the theory is manageable, in actual practical terms building such a device is a formidable technical challenge and Iran needed outside assistance in designing the generator and testing its performance.
Danilenko's role was judged to be so critical that IAEA investigators devoted great and sustained efforts to obtaining his cooperation, the two officials said.
The scientist acknowledged his role, but said he was under belief that his work was limited to assisting harmless civilian engineering projects.
While the world was considering boycotts and other measures, Iran continued field tests and computer simulations aimed at developing nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles after 2003 despite previous naïve US assumptions that Tehran had completely stopped its nuclear weapons research at that time.
Latest assessment of Iran’s nuclear weapons research shows that Tehran has not yet actually completed assembling a nuclear weapon but has all the necessary technical information and components to create one in a very short time- should its political masters decide so.
Pakistani and North Korean scientists also actively helped Iranian experts in theoretical design work while consistently lying about it to the West.
Started by an over-zealous Israeli reporter, Nahum Barnea, media speculations of an impending Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities flooded the information highway in recent days. There was considerable public guessing of the U.S. and British military contingency planning in the aftermath of this potential strike.
Israel’s military planners and political policy makers also went into action. On Wednesday, Nov. 2, shortly after announcing the successful test launch from the Palmachim IAF base of a new, intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, Israel disclosed in unusual detail a joint Israeli-Italian air exercise ending last Friday, Nov. 29, at Sardinia.
Foreign sources identified the ICBM as an upgraded Jericho 3 said able to deliver a 750-kilo nuclear warhead to a distance of 7,000 kilometers - further, if fitted with a smaller warhead.
Western intelligence experts estimate that 42 such missiles with conventional warheads are enough to seriously disable Iran's main nuclear facilities in Natanz, Isfahan and Arak.
As for Iran's newest underground Fordo facility near Qom, the US very publicly supplied Israel with GBU-28 bunker busters as far back as the third week of September.
Six Israel Air Force squadrons took part in the joint one-week exercise with Italy consisting of fourteen F-16 F-16 single and twin-seaters taking off from the Ramat David air base, joined by Israeli-modified Boeing craft for in-flight refueling of war planes, the Gulfstream-built highly capable Eitam Air Control early warning aircraft and specially equipped Hercules transports taking off from the Nevatim IAF base in the Negev.
As part of the joint exercise, on Silvio Berlusconi’s direct orders, the Italian air force flew the advanced Eurofighter Typhoon, AMX, Panavia Tornado and F-16s.
Last Wednesday a large-scale exercise had begun to prepare central Israel for missile attack.
While all this activity was going on, Israeli leaders are in mid-debate over whether or not to launch a pre-emptive attack on Iran's nuclear sites.
Everyone wants his and her say on the matter, including ex generals and a long retired Mossad chief with a spotty service record behind him.
All the while, in reality, it appears that Netanyahu's inner circle of eight is in fact is trying to determine the usefulness of abandoning its longstanding policy of nuclear ambiguity at this time.
From all indications, a pending attack is not on Bibi’s current agenda.
November promises to be an especially critical month.
The public exposure of the scale of this program and Iran's pending indictment by the nuclear watchdog is intended to shock world opinion, thereby helping US President Barack Obama to go all the way with non-military steps: really biting sanctions, such as effective worldwide boycotts of Iranian fuel and even the Iranian state bank.
Tehran has warned that these sanctions would be deemed an act of war. The mouse is roaring.
Many believe that the Iranian leadership will not be content with statements ridiculing the IAEA report but will look for a more active response.
As the Persians are pretty good chess players, there is a fair chance that the Ayatollahs may lift her Hijab over a certain portion of its nuclear achievements, as though to say: to hell with this of this nuclear hide-and-seek game; we are about to be a nuclear power like just like Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea. So there you have it.
If that scenario plays our, Ahmadinejad may even conduct a complete or partial nuclear test, or else publicly display a new ballistic multi-stage missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead.
These calculated steps might be designed to give President Obama pause.
Because Tehran will likely gamble that if it has already publicly crossed the nuclear threshold, what would be the point of tough sanctions?
At the same time, Tehran has made the necessary preparations for lessening the impact of drastic penalties with the help of their ever present co-conspirators, Russia, China and perhaps even India.
Nearly all current Iranian oil deals are now funneled through a Russian-Iranian sales mechanism operating in the safety of Moscow and safely out of American and Western reach.
Under the watchful eye of Putin’s Kremlin, Russian banks are happily handling most of Iran's international financial transactions in currencies other than the US dollar – mostly the Russian ruble and Chinese yuan.
While all this is happening on the Iran side, a highly unstable Syria is another complicating factor and poses hard dilemma: Assad for his own political ends, might encourage Tehran into radical action in the wake of their nuclear controversy.
Predictable counter-responses by the West and Israel could light the fuse of a regional war- potentially taking the focus off Assad’s internal troubles.
All in all a damaging IAEA report on Iran would do more than expose its nuclear misconduct; it could bring the entire region dangerously close to a violent conflict.
The Israeli media's current highly irresponsible leaks of the debate within the government in Jerusalem aim to influence the judgment of both Netanyahu and Barak.
The media hysteria in Israel is also seriously detrimental to that country’s security.
The more publicity given this non-existent debate, the edgier Damascus and Tehran will become and the closer to warlike steps.
It may also have an undesirable effect on Iran's nuclear decision-making and increase pressures in the region and also the severity of Assad's brutal campaign of suppression.
Military action against Iran, alone or with US support, should not be on Israel's current agenda, while it should be reserved as a possible future option.
The ultimate question facing Israel’s decision makers is what to do if the IAEA revelations demonstrate that Tehran's pursuit of a nuclear weapon is too far advanced to stop and a nuclear-armed Iran is therefore close to reality.
The cabinet is consequently trying to decide whether the time has come for Israel to bring up their presumed bomb from the basement, or stay silent and support Obama on the imposition of sanctions, fully knowing that their deterrent value is completely non existent.
An answer of some sort to this question was provided last Wednesday by the test launch of the Jericho 3 ballistic missile.
Israel's military censors uncharacteristically allowed their media to quote "from foreign sources" that the newly launched missile is indeed nuclear-capable, indicating that the Netanyahu government may well be approaching a crucial decision to bring the nukes up from the basement.
And that would be a pivotal game changer.
